Inductive Thinking

A farmer feeds a goose. At first, the goose is hesitant, wondering what is going on. Why is he feeding me? This continues for a few more weeks until, eventually, the goose’s skepticism gives way. After a few months, the goose is sure that the farmer has its best interests at heart. Each additional day’s feeding confirms this. Fully convinced of the man’s benevolence, the goose is amazed when he takes it out of its enclosure on Christmas Day … and then the farmer slaughters it. The Christmas goose fell victim to inductive thinking – the inclination to draw universal certainties from individual observations.

However, it’s not just geese that are susceptible to it. An investor buys shares in stock X. The share price rockets, and at first he is wary. “Probably a bubble,” he suspects. As the stock continues to rise, even after months, his apprehension turns into excitement. “This stock may never come down,” especially since every day this is the case. After half a year, he invests his life savings in it, turning a blind eye to the huge cluster risk this poses. Later, the man will pay for his foolish investment. He has fallen hook, line, and sinker for induction.

Inductive thinking can have devastating results. Yet we cannot do without it. We trust that, when we board a plane, aerodynamic laws will still be valid. We imagine that we will not be randomly beaten up on the street. We expect that our hearts will still be beating tomorrow. These are confidences without which we cannot live, but we must remember that certainties are always provisional. As Benjamin Franklin said, “Nothing is certain but death and taxes.”

Induction seduces us and leads us to conclusions such as: “Mankind has always survived, so we will be able to tackle any future challenges too.” Sounds good in theory, but what we fail to realize is that such a statement can only come from a species that has lasted until now. To assume that our existence to date is an indication of our future survival is a serious flaw in reasoning. Probably the most serious of all.