Groupthink Is a Flaw

In March 1960, the U.S. Secret Service began to mobilize anticommunist exiles from Cuba, most of them living in Miami, to use against Fidel Castro’s regime. In January 1961, 2 days after taking office, President Kennedy was informed about the secret plan to invade Cuba. 3 months later, a key meeting took place at the White House, where Kennedy and his advisers all voted in favor of the invasion. On April 17, 1961, a brigade of 1,400 exiled Cubans landed at the Bay of Pigs, on Cuba’s south coast, with the help of the U.S. Navy, the Air Force, and the CIA.

The aim was to overthrow Castro’s government. However, nothing went as planned. On the first day, not a single supply ship reached the coast. The Cuban air force sank the first two, and the next two turned around and fled back to the United States. A day later, Castro’s army completely surrounded the brigade. On the third day, the 1,200 survivors were taken into custody and sent to military prisons.

Kennedy’s invasion of the Bay of Pigs is regarded as one of the biggest flops in American foreign policy. That such an absurd plan was ever agreed upon is astounding. All of the assumptions that spoke in favor of the invasion were erroneous. And yet Kennedy and his advisers were among the most intelligent people to ever run an American government. What actually went wrong in 1961?

Members of a close-knit group cultivate team spirit by building illusions unconsciously. One of these fantasies is a belief in invincibility: “If both our leader and the group are confident that the plan will work, then luck will be on our side.” Next comes the illusion of unanimity: “If the others are of the same opinion, any dissenting view must be wrong.” No one wants to be the naysayer that destroys team unity. Finally, each person is happy to be part of the group. Expressing reservations could mean exclusion from it.

Groupthink is also no stranger in the modern business world. Have you ever bitten your tongue in a meeting? You sit there, say nothing, and nod along to proposals. After all, you don’t want to be the naysayer. CEO and senior management are making reckless decisions and everyone aligns their opinions with the supposed consensus. Motions are passed even they should have rejected in the first place.

Are the following familiar at work: you find your project is already late on day one when you first receive its schedule; tasks that should be performed in sequence are planned to execute in parallel; a resource is allocated for more than 200 working hours a month; activities are heavily underestimated; and the milestone dates are unrealistic?

If you ever find yourself in a tight, unanimous group, speak your mind, even if your team does not like it, even if eventually it has no effect. Question tacit assumptions, even if you risk expulsion from the warm nest. Be the devil’s advocate, you will not be the most popular member of the team, but you might be the most important one.